Matthew Coller: Future of the Vikings, Part 2: Rebuilding the RB room

The Future of the Vikings series looks at the major storylines and options for every position on the field along with an analysis of each player’s 2024 season. For Part 2, we look at the Vikings’ need to improve their running game and how they will approach the backfield…

With hopes of solidifying the backfield, the Minnesota Vikings signed former Green Bay Packer Aaron Jones last offseason to a one-year contract. He gave them everything that they could have asked for with 1,138 yards rushing and 408 yards receiving, the second highest total yards from scrimmage of his.

Midway through the season it became clear that they were leaning on Jones too heavily and the Vikings acquired RB Cam Akers. He finished with 297 yards at 4.6 yards per carry and caught 10 passes for 52 yards.

The biggest disappointment of the year was 2022 fifth-round pick Ty Chandler, who had spent the summer as RB2 but then lost that job to Akers and barely saw the field again after that. Chandler ran the ball just eight times after Week 10. He also went unused as a kick returner, only bringing the ball back eight times despite the new rules.

Two of those three running backs are set to hit free agency. So what happens next with no clear succession plan? Let’s have a look at that and other factors surrounding the Vikings’ run game…

Improving the run game as a priority

While the Vikings may have received the best possible outcomes with a full season from Jones and Akers adding some juice to the backfield, the Vikings finished 19th in rushing yards and 28th in rushing Expected Points Added. Considering they played many games from ahead where most teams would presumably be leaning on the run game more often, those are startling numbers.

Out of 431 plays when the Vikings were leading — an NFL high — they only rushed on 162. If we take out punts and field goals, that’s still only 47%. The Packers had the next highest number of plays when ahead and they ran on 58%. Detroit was third, they ran on 55% of plays when leading.

Among teams who were ahead for at least 200 plays, the Vikings were the only one to throw more than they ran.

With two running backs who averaged at least 4.5 yards per carry, why were the number still so low? Why did they run so rarely?

Was it the offensive line? Jones fading down the stretch because he was banged up? A lack of ingenuity or trust from the head coach? Or all of the above?

For starters, the EPA numbers are poor in part because EPA gives credit for touchdowns and first down conversions. If you never run in the red zone successfully or run on third/fourth-and-short, your run game isn’t going to be particularly valuable.

Not only that but if you never run in the red zone or short yardage, your yards-per-carry stat is going to be a bit artificially higher than teams that slam RBs into the stacked defense. On third or fourth down and three or fewer yards to go, the Vikings ran 26 times, an NFL low. They passed 49 times. Sam Darnold made up 10 of those runs. Jalen Nailor made up two of them. That’s right: Aaron Jones only carried the ball in short yardage nine times and picked up four first downs. That is a number that would seem to tie into the blocking.

So how good was Jones if we look deeper? Well, he ranked 17th among starting RBs in yards after contact and he was 17th in 10+ yard runs. In terms of Rushing Yards Over Expected per carry, Jones was +0.17 over expected, just a hair above average. Without big explosive runs or the ability to gain more than the offensive line was giving them, the Vikings did not have enough to lean on Jones like some of the top RBs i.e. Derrick Henry or Saquon Barkley.

On the matter of the O-line, the loss of Christian Darrisaw was devastating to the Vikings’ running game. Darrisaw had an 82.3 PFF grade when he went down for the year, the sixth best mark in the NFL. His replacement Cam Robinson was nowhere near his caliber, finishing 43rd of 60 starters. Out of 10 games Robinson played in purple, he graded below average in the run seven times.

But that didn’t destroy Jones’s numbers. He was picking up 4.8 yards per carry through the game Darrisaw got hurt and ended with 4.2 YPC in the final 10 games.

The adjustment from Ed Ingram at right guard to Dalton Risner did not have a statistical impact on the run effectiveness either with the two guards finishing with near identical PFF grades (58.1 vs. 57.4).

Some of the shortage in rushing value may be philosophical. By the numbers, it’s not effective to run on second-and-long. O’Connell had the sixth fewest rushes on second-and-6 or longer. His play calling also produced the third most plays that picked up a first down on second-and-6 or longer. That’s probably not a coincidence. They were eighth in yards per play in those situations.

This number will shock you: The Vikings ran 261 times and passes 183 times on first-and-10. That might have made them a bit predictable to opponents, who knew that they would run fairly often on first and basically never on second.

O’Connell did try to use fullback CJ Ham more often this season with 126 run-blocking snaps from the veteran versus only 64 last year. Josh Oliver’s run blocking count also increased, though that may have tied into TJ Hockenson’s injury earlier in the year. Hockenson’s ineffectiveness as a run blocker may also have contributed. He graded a 49.6 on only 92 run-blocking snaps. Not being able to use the starting TE to run block created another challenge.

The bottom line: There were a lot of factors that went into the lack of a dangerous run game.

For the third straight year, the Vikings will head into the offseason asking the question: How can they improve their rushing attack? That likely starts with finding better run blockers are the guard positions (Blake Brandel at left guard ranked 45th of 59) but the guards can’t take all the blame. There were 17 running backs that gave their team at least 0.5 yards over expected per carry this year and the run scheme has to be studied. Will they change run game coordinators? Or the offensive line coach? Or will O’Connell always struggle to put the same type of focus on the ground game as his passing attack?

Bring back the backfield?

Jones made it clear that he would like to retire a Viking. His season overall was solid and he was able to remain healthy. However, the Vikings were able to largely buck history for one year with their 30-year old running back and it would feel like pressing their luck to run it back at age 31. Since 2014, there have only been seven instances of running backs at age 31 or older gaining more than 750 yards and averaging 4.3 yards per carry or more. All of the RBs who accomplished that feat were more stout than Jones, including Adrian Peterson, Latavius Murray, Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams, Marshawn Lynch and LeGarrette Blount.

Every situation is different, so we can’t say that it’s a guarantee that Jones fades next year just because history is against him but the risk of injury or decline goes up and up with every passing day.

If Jones does come back, he would need to be paired with another running back. Would they bring back Akers again? O’Connell has repeatedly expressed his appreciation for Akers and he did perform at a high level down the stretch, giving the Vikings their two biggest runs of the last two weeks. He finished the season — between Houston and Minnesota — with 16 runs of 10+ out of 104 carries.

Akers comes along with some risk as well. He tore his Achilles in 2021 and his other Achilles in 2023. While he has plenty of burst, there has to be some concern that he hasn’t carried the ball more than 110 times since 2022. If Jones (or whoever is starting) were to get banged up, they need a backup who can be the full-time RB. Is that Akers?

Had Chandler emerged as part of a duo as it appeared was possible before training camp, then the Vikings could try to run it all back with him potentially getting a high percentage of the carries. But he seemed to lose O’Connell’s trust early in the year and never regain in despite running for 461 yards at 4.5 YPC in 2023. His disappearance from the offense was surprising considering the way he finished 2023, with 110 yards on 22 carries over the last two games of the year.

It is very plausible that the backfield could be completely new in 2025.

Will that include a fullback or not? While Ham was used more this year, the KOC running game has never seemed as comfortable with using him as Kubiak/Stefanski did in 2019-2021. Ham reinvented himself as a third-down pass protector over the last two years, which may be a difference maker in the decision. He is also a vital special teamer. But they could create $2.6 million in cap space by moving on and if they end deciding that the run game with a fullback in their system isn’t effective, it may be the end of an era.

Free agent options

Last year was a once-in-a-decade class of free agent running backs with Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley at the top. That is not the case this offseason. There are only five free agent RBs who took more than 50% of snaps this year. Let’s have a look at the top free agent starters and role players…

Out of this group, the most attractive options are the buy-low with high upside players. Dowdle may be underrated because Dallas didn’t fully lean into his talents. He has the highest RYOE of any free agent running back. The other player that’s intriguing is Khalil Herbert. He had a rough 2024 but his previous three seasons included averaging 5.7 YPC on 129 runs in 2022 and 4.6 YPC on 132 runs in 2023. It’s unclear why he fell out of favor in Chicago.

Harris is likely the most expensive and is the easiest to project because he’s a four-year starter. While his YPC isn’t great for his career (3.9), you have to wonder if that has been partly because opponents have never respected Pittsburgh’s passing game since he’s been there.

Draft options

The Vikings presently have three draft picks. It’s a pretty tough sell to suggest that they should spend their top draft pick on a running back, even if it has worked out for their division rivals in Detroit. If they did surprise us and go that route, it’s unclear whether Boise State’s record setter Ashton Jeanty will be available with the 24th pick. They could also look at North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton, who ran for 1,660 yards at 5.9 yards per attempt this season.

Draft boards will change enormously between now and the end of the NFL Combine but players like Cam Skattebo of Arizona State, Tennessee star Dylan Sampson and Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson are currently projected in the middle rounds and could be options for the Vikings in the third round.

If they want to take a Day 3 swing, they could look at players like either of Ohio State’s RBs TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins or a number of other quality prospects that are worthy of a dart throw. If they only take a RB in the fifth, it’s hard to expect them to make an impact right away.

The bottom line

If the Vikings are going to completely change their fate in terms of their rushing attack, it probably has to happen from the offensive line and scheme because there isn’t an option outside of taking Jeanty in the first round that has an upside of an elite player at the position.

There are more questions than answers when it comes to O’Connell and the run game. In three years as the Vikings’ head coach, he hasn’t had a consistent O-line or a star running back in his prime. Yet there still does seem to be fewer complexities and moving parts to the Vikings run game than some others around the league i.e. Packers/Lions and there is a clear struggle to execute in short yardage situations that makes them one-dimensional. It might be hard to change but it has to change.

Kliff Kingsbury has really helped his stock this NFL season, but is he ready to leave the Washington Commanders behind? On Monday afternoon, ESPN’s Adam Schefter had an update on the impressive offensive coordinator. During an appearance on “The Pat McAfee Show,” Schefter said Kingsbury is very happy to be the offensive coordinator of the Commanders. We can’t blame him for feeling that way. After all, he has an incredibly talented quarterback in Jayden Daniels. The No. 2 pick from last year’s draft has all the makings of a superstar. And although everyone is waiting for him to struggle in the playoffs, he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down. While a few teams have expressed interest in poaching Daniels’ offensive coordinator, Schefter reported Monday that Kingsbury is in no rush to leave the Commanders. “I think Kliff Kingsbury is very happy in Washington,” Schefter said. “He has an incredible quarterback, a transcendent quarterback. Between making money in Arizona and having the head coaching experience he did, he’s not rushing to become a head coach again. “Would he like to be one day? I’m sure, but it’s not something he has to rush to go do. If the right opportunity comes along at the right time, I’m sure he’d be open to that. But he’s not going to force that, and right now he’s more focused on the NFC Championship Game.” Kingsbury knows how important it is to pick the right coaching situation. In four years with the Arizona Cardinals, he had a 28-37-1 record. The franchise made the playoffs during the 2021 season. Every team with a head-coaching vacancy right now has a legitimate flaw, whether it’s management or the quarterback situation. Kingsbury could spend one more year with Daniels as his quarterback while waiting for a premier job to open up. Besides, Kingsbury is only 45 years old. He should get a second chance at being a head coach in the future. For now, Kingsbury is focused on helping the Commanders get to the Super Bowl.

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According to a new report, the Pittsburgh Penguins’ general manager and President of Hockey Operations Kyle Dubas is looking to make a fire sale on the trade market. A few days ago, Kyle Dubas showed that he was serious when he stated that he wanted to make massive changes to the team ahead of the trade deadline by placing their (former) number-one goaltender Jarry on waivers. More moves are expected to go down before the NHL’s trade deadline on March 7th, with one of the key players in Pittsburgh reportedly hitting the trade block: Erik Karlsson. While he can still play an important role with the Penguins, Dubas appears poised to take and make calls to other organizations for him. According to Marco D’Amico’s report, contracts that seem unmovable could end up being moved after all: ‘That’s someone they want and need to move. I think they retain salary for sure, and you know what? He can help the right team still. Maybe with the cap going up, you never know.’ ‘Those contracts you think are unmovable aren’t all that way anymore.’ What Dubas is doing is clear: he wants to win now for Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin while building for the future: ‘You’re going to see him move and take back term. He still wants to try and win for Sid and Geno, but he thinks he can build for the future, too.’ This was highlighted by another massive declaration, which confirmed that there are only five players who are untouchable in Pittsburgh: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Bryan Rust, Philip Tomasino, and Owen Pickering. ‘Sid, Malkin, Rust, and the two kids, Tomasino and Pickering, they’re off limits for now, but everything else can be had for the right price.’ This means that not only Karlsson, but Kris Letang, Michael Bunting, Marcus Pettersson, Rickard Rakell, and all the others aren’t safe with the Penguins.

Nikola Jokic recorded his 18th triple-double of the 2024-25 season Sunday in the Nuggets’ 113-100 win over the Magic. With 40 games left, Jokic needs 24 more triple-doubles to match teammate Russell Westbrook’s record (set in 2016-17) for most triple-doubles in a season. At his current pace — 18 triple-doubles from 36 games — Jokic is unlikely to break Westbrook’s record. However, he is on pace to rewrite the history books on several other counts. First, the Serb is a few assists shy of becoming the first center in NBA history to average a 30-point triple-double (currently averages 30.4 points, 13.1 rebounds, 9.9 assists). Guards Westbrook (2016-17) and Oscar Robertson (1961-62) remain the only players to achieve the mind-blowing feat. Second, Jokic is on pace to become the first player ever to rank top five in five statistical categories: points, rebounds, assists, steals and 3PT%, per StatsPerform. As of Monday, he ranked third in points, third in rebounds, second in assists, tied fifth in steals and second in 3PT%. For context, no player in history has finished a season ranking even in the top 10 in each of those categories. Such has been Jokic’s dominance that 12 of his 18 triple-doubles this season have been recorded before the fourth quarter. That’s more than any of the other 29 teams have in total. The fact that so many of his triple-doubles have come early into games has shut down the chatter of him being “a stat-padder” or a player putting up empty calories. Greatest statistical season ever? There is a credible argument that Jokic’s 2024-25 season will go down as the greatest statistical feat in modern history. Why? It’s the efficiency numbers. When Robertson averaged a 30-point triple-double in 1961-62, he shot 47.8 percent from the field and 80.3 percent from the free throw line. Similarly, Westbrook maintained 42/34/84 shooting splits during his historic campaign in 2016-17. Jokic is maintaining 56/47/80 shooting splits while attempting 20.4 shots per game. That’s unheard of. Even the great Wilt Chamberlain didn’t shoot so efficiently when he averaged 50.4 points and 25.7 rebounds in 1961-62. The sheer volume of the numbers means Chamberlain will always be the greatest statistical monster, but Jokic’s all-around efficiency and impact on winning is unprecedented.