ESPN Predicts “Bold” Offseason Move for the Vikings

The Minnesota Vikings have plenty of decisions to make this offseason, and the one that we’re going to keep coming back to until free agency kicks off in a couple of weeks has to do with the quarterback position. We know what Sam Darnold did for the team this past season after signing a one-year deal, and we also know that the team has young J.J. McCarthy waiting to take over after he missed all of last season with a torn meniscus. So, what do the Vikings do at the position going forward?

Behind the great E$PN paywall, Aaron Schatz has registered his take, predicting the Vikings will make the bold move of signing Darnold to a long-term deal while moving McCarthy for draft capital.

This seems like an absurd idea after the poor wild-card game Darnold had in the playoffs against the Rams, but that was just one game against a very strong, young defensive line. For the entire regular season, Darnold was surprisingly good, ranking 14th in QBR even after adjustments for the players around him. He will still be just 28 next season, and he probably could be signed for a similar contract to the one Daniel Jones signed with the Giants; the Vikings would have a reasonable out after a couple of seasons if Darnold does not continue to play at a high level.

Signing Darnold to a long-term deal would also allow the Vikings to trade McCarthy. He would likely be the top-ranked quarterback in the 2025 class if he was in the upcoming draft. McCarthy won’t garner a top pick because he has one less season on his rookie contract than Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward will have, but he could get the Vikings a package of picks that would help to replenish their draft allotment. The Vikings currently have just three picks in the 2025 draft — none in the second, third or fourth rounds — and likely a fourth pick when compensatory picks are handed out.

I don’t say this in an effort to be disrespectful to Aaron Schatz, whose body of work with Football Outsiders and other places speaks for itself, but I just don’t get all the thoughts about the Vikings keeping Darnold and not even giving McCarthy a shot.

If the Vikings were to use the franchise tag on Darnold and he signed it right away, the Vikings would immediately be on the hook for $40 million in 2025. That’s going to eat up a huge chunk of the cap space that they’re going to need to address some of the other positions on the roster, including the interior on both lines and the cornerback spot. Sure, the Vikings could probably move a few things around here and there to get things done, but then they’d find themselves right back in the situation that Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O’Connell just spent the past couple of seasons digging the team out of.

The Vikings have finally cleared the last of the Spielman/Zimmer era contracts off of the books and are in the upper quarter of the league as far as available cap space in free agency. Given the way the Vikings absolutely nailed free agency this past season, it would make sense to let the team bring in the guys they feel give them the best opportunity to win while trying to take advantage of having a quarterback on an inexpensive rookie deal.

Minnesota went through six seasons of the Kirk Cousins era, and while Cousins put up solid numbers for most of his tenure, the team ultimately emerged with not a lot to show for it. It would be a positively stunning development if the team were to decide to get back on the high-priced quarterback treadmill with Darnold, particularly after he’s had just the one good season in Minnesota.

I’ve said this numerous times in this space, but the Vikings have done everything they’ve done to this point with an eye on 2025. Whether McCarthy was going to start this past season or not, he was almost certainly going to enter this coming season as the starter. Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell both know that their success, and their employment prospects with the Vikings, rest with the McCarthy pick. They’re going to give the youngster every opportunity to be successful, and that starts with using the money they’re going to have available this offseason and loading up the roster around him to give him the best chance.

If the Vikings can make absolutely, positively sure they have some sort of deal in place before the start of the new league year, tagging and trading Darnold might be a reasonable option. However, since you can’t realistically ensure that sort of thing will happen, the Vikings are probably just going to let Darnold walk and get a compensatory pick in 2026 for his services. In either case, Sam Darnold being back in Minnesota for the 2025 season would be one of the biggest upsets of the year, and no matter how many folks in the media attempt to will it into existence, I just don’t see any chance of it happening.