Lady Vols basketball vs Ole Miss prediction for Tennessee, coach Kim Caldwell

Lady Vols basketball has a key matchup at home this weekend.

No. 16 Tennessee (18-6, 5-6 SEC) hosts Ole Miss (17-7, 8-4) at Food City Center on Sunday (noon ET, SEC Network). The Lady Vols are coming off a 99-61 win over Auburn, and the Rebels beat Arkansas 89-50 on the road Thursday.

Here’s what you need to know about the matchup.

Lady Vols, Kim Caldwell will have to solve Ole Miss defense

The Rebels rely on their defense, and they’re third in the conference in scoring margin (+11.25). That’s because Ole Miss has the third-ranked defense in the SEC, holding conference opponents to 62.2 points.

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While Ole Miss has limited opponents’ scoring overall, it consistently gets outshot from the field. Seven of its SEC opponents shot better than Ole Miss, and four of those opponents beat the Rebels. The most points Ole Miss has given up is 84 points in a loss to Alabama, and the Crimson Tide shot 12-of-19 on 3-pointers.

The Lady Vols need another strong shooting night like Thursday, but that’s easier said than done. Only four opponents have made more than six 3-pointers against Ole Miss.

Ole Miss led by Madison Scott, Sira Thienou

Senior forward Madison Scott leads Ole Miss with 12.7 points per game and she averages 5.2 rebounds and 3.8 assists. Scott isn’t a threat from behind the arc, but she shoots 48.6% from the field and can get to the free throw line.

Freshman guard Sira Thienou has developed into a key starter for the Rebels. She’s second on the team in scoring, averaging 11.7 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.8 steals and 2.3 assists. Thienou shoots 50.9% from the field and leads the team in 3-point percentage (38.3%) on 2.5 attempts per game.

Kennedy Todd-Williams and Starr Jacobs also average just over 11 points and are key rebounders, averaging 5.3 and 6.8, respectively.

Tennessee vs Ole Miss stats that matter

Ole Miss and Tennessee have nearly identical stats in turnover margin in SEC games.

The Rebels force 19.08 turnovers per game and commit 14 of their own; the Lady Vols force 19.18 turnovers and commit 14.6 against conference opponents. OIe Miss averages an SEC-leading 10.8 steals against conference opponents, Tennessee averages 9.6.

The Lady Vols have had a few high-turnover games recently, and they can’t afford to do that against Ole Miss. Winning the turnover margin will be crucial to winning with the Rebels’ strong rebounding.

Ole Miss has outpaced SEC opponents by 6.5 rebounds, and it destroyed No. 13 Kentucky on the boards 54-33 to upset the Wildcats 66-57. Tennessee has to keep the Rebels off the offensive glass in particular to limit second-chance opportunities.

Lady Vols vs Ole Miss injury updates

Tennessee is without senior guard Kaiya Wynn, who’s out for the season with a torn Achilles tendon.

Ole Miss had all its players available against Arkansas on Thursday.

How to watch Tennessee vs Ole Miss: Time, TV channel, live stream

Lady Vols vs. Ole Miss tips off at noon ET on Sunday and will be broadcast on SEC Network. The game can be streamed on the ESPN app when logged into a TV provider like Fubo, which offers a free trial to new subscribers.

Tennessee vs Ole Miss prediction

Tennessee 80, Ole Miss 68: The Lady Vols will come out on top of a matchup that could get ugly with both teams’ ability to force turnovers. Tennessee will continue to build on its strong performance Thursday and add a quality win to its resume.