Where Darnold ends up this offseason will have a domino effect on the entire QB market.

One of the biggest questions of the upcoming NFL offseason is where Sam Darnold will end up after a surprising Pro Bowl season with the Vikings ended in ugly fashion. Whether Darnold returns to the Vikings or signs a big contract with a new team is the first domino that has to fall in the quarterback market this spring. Once his immediate future is clear, other QB-needy teams will turn to the remaining options in free agency and the draft.

That’s the premise of an interesting recent article from ESPN’s Ben Solak, who dove into the Darnold decision and how it’ll impact QB movement this year. The whole thing is worth reading, but let’s take a look at — and react to — some of the notable things Solak said.

Darnold will command $30-40 million on a new contract

A conservative estimate places him on a three-year deal worth about $30 million annually — just below Baker Mayfield’s yearly figure and just above that of Geno Smith. … But the league is absolutely desperate for quarterbacks — both generally speaking and specifically in this moment. … The fact that Darnold was the third pick in 2018 — and continues to throw the ball with the sort of spectacular arm talent only ex-No. 3 picks can — makes him a more interesting commodity on the open market. … While the idea of signing Darnold to a four-year, $140 million deal seems preposterous, I wouldn’t be surprised to see those figures at all. Functionally that ends up playing out more like a two-year, $70 million contract with a couple of team options attached behind it if Darnold plays well.

I agree with this. Yes, Darnold’s season ended in rough fashion when he wilted in the two most important games against the Lions and Rams, but the body of work he put on tape in 2024 should still get him paid. You don’t throw for 4,300 yards, 35 touchdowns, and a 100+ passer rating by accident. Plus, the relative weakness of the other QB options in free agency and the draft this year works in Darnold’s favor. I think he’ll get more than Mayfield did last year.

Darnold’s potential suitors include the Raiders, Steelers, Giants

The Raiders seem like the right sort of team to kick the tires on Darnold’s 2024 season as a sign of things to come. … I wouldn’t rule anything out for Pittsburgh anymore. … Desperation should drive the Giants to the Darnold market.

It’s hard to predict exactly where Darnold will end up if he joins a new team this offseason, but these three feel like logical candidates. The Raiders, as they enter the Pete Carroll and John Spytek era, make a lot of sense, although they could also have interest in Carroll’s old QB Russell Wilson. The Steelers, despite being a playoff team, may want an upgrade at QB, whether or not they bring back either Wilson or Justin Fields. Returning to New York, albeit not for the Jets, would be a full-circle moment for Darnold. The Titans could also be interested, though they have the No. 1 pick and the option of drafting Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders if they want to.

A Darnold return to Minnesota is not off the table

Smart teams don’t let quarterbacks who just performed well over a 14-win season leave the building easily. … If Darnold’s market indeed comes in near $40 million per year, the Vikings will likely get priced out as they address other positions. But if Darnold wants to stay in the O’Connell offense and Minnesota can get him at a lower figure, don’t be surprised to see it happen. Plus, Darnold’s contract would become a valuable trade asset if McCarthy is great — and a valuable escape hatch if McCarthy is shaky.

This is where I disagree a little bit. I wouldn’t say Darnold coming back to Minnesota is completely off the table — even if almost the entire fan base wants to wish him good luck elsewhere and move on to J.J. McCarthy — but I do think it’s more unlikely than Solak makes it seem. Darnold was very good this year, but his play in the two most important games outweighs a lot of that. The Vikings also have numerous other needs to address, and bringing back Darnold would take up a sizable chunk of their cap space, even if it’s on a below-market-value deal.

The Vikings have McCarthy ready to go. They drafted him to be their guy. Darnold had a great season, but it probably wasn’t great enough to change their plans. If they let him walk, they’ll have all kinds of money to build an improved team around McCarthy, who had plenty of big-game experience at Michigan. Plus, I think things would get complicated if Darnold returns. Since you don’t pay a backup $30 million or more, he’d be locked in as their starter, and the calls for McCarthy from the fans would get very loud as soon as Darnold had one singular bad game (or even a bad training camp practice, realistically). That almost seems unfair to him.

Again, it’s not impossible that Darnold comes back, whether on a multi-year deal or the $41 million franchise tag. It just seems to make more sense for both parties if he signs a big contract with a new team and the Vikings roll with McCarthy.