If Sam Darnold isn’t good enough, then neither is Matthew Stafford

Sam Darnold and Matthew Stafford finished the 2024 season with very similar production profiles. Both head into the offseason with uncertain futures. It’s likely that Darnold is out in Minnesota; therefore, the Los Angeles Rams should also carefully evaluate Stafford’s future with the team.

If Sam Darnold isn’t good enough for the Minnesota Vikings, then Stafford isn’t good enough for Sean McVay and the Rams.

Darnold: Surprised the NFL by maintaining stellar production until Week 18 versus the Detroit Lions and in the wildcard playoff round against the Rams. The Vikings drafted former Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy shortly after signing Darnold. Would the Vikings be best-served investing salary cap resources into setting McCarthy up for success versus giving Darnold a costly contract extension? To complicate matters further, Minnesota doesn’t have much draft capital after trading up for each of McCarthy and EDGE Dallas Turner in the first round a year ago.

Stafford: It’s clear that Stafford regressed statistically from what may have been his best career season in 2023. Some blame deservedly should go to the offensive line, who battled injuries in the early going before finding their footing late into the year. Still, Stafford had difficulties navigating muddied pockets and keeping the ball out of harm’s way. His ability to manufacture big plays with his arm also took a step back from last season. What more does he have left in the tank? Do the Rams really want to deal with retirement rumors each offseason for the foreseeable future, or is it time to rip the band-aid off and find a quarterback that can grow with an otherwise young roster?

Darnold and Stafford had very similar 2024 seasons

Darnold:

66.0% completion for 4,564 yards, 36 TD’s, and 13 INT’s

PFF: 80.7 offensive grade, 77.5 passing grade, 76.5% adjusted completion, 34 big-time throws (5.4%), 27 turnover-worthy plays (3.7%), 9.3 ADOT, 29 scrambles

Stafford:

65.5% completion for 4,295 yards, 24 TD’s, and 8 INT’s

PFF: 74.7 offensive grade, 73.3 passing grade, 73.2% adjusted completion, 26 big-time throws (4.2%), 25 turnover-worthy plays (3.7%), 8.3 ADOT, 4 scrambles

While the box score looks impressive for Stafford because he only threw eight interceptions, he benefitted from a high degree of turnover luck this year.

Darnold led the NFL with 27 turnover-worthy plays. Stafford was second with 25. Kirk Cousins and Baker Mayfield were third with 24, and they each threw 16 interceptions this season.

63.0% completion for 4,332 yards, 26 TD’s, and 11 INT’s

74.3% adjusted completion, 37 big-time throws (6.3%), 12 turnover-worthy plays (1.9%), 8.2 ADOT, 14 scrambles

Stafford clearly saw regression from 2023 to 2024 in both his ability to manufacture big-time throws (BTT) and keep the ball out of harm’s way (TWP).

His BTT rate decreased 33% to 4.2%, which is the worst mark of his career outside of the 2010, 2015, 2016, and 2009 seasons. Stafford’s TWP percentage increased by 95% which was the highest of his career with the exception of the 2009, 2012, 2015, and 2017 seasons.

This was objectively a down year for Matthew Stafford. The final product was below average in comparison to his body of work in the NFL, and this was easily his worst full-season with the Rams.

Do the Rams really want to face retirement rumors every year?

We know that Stafford is taking some time to himself in order to decide his NFL future for 2025 and perhaps beyond. He’s supposed to make McVay and the Rams aware of his plans by the end of this week.

However, why are the Rams willing to entertain a one year at a time approach with their quarterback when the rest of their roster seems ready to compete for years to come. Puka Nacua, Jared Verse, Kobie Turner, Braden Fiske, Kyren Williams, Kamren Kinchens, Steve Avila, Beaux Limmer, and others provide a foundation that have put the Rams in the postseason two years in a row.

Stafford’s retirement decision is also a contract dispute masquerading as a true contemplation of his future. During last year’s NFL Draft, Stafford’s camp leaked to the national media that he was unhappy with his contract. He held the Rams hostage and threatened to not report to training camp without a new deal.

If Stafford says he’s willing to commit to another season in Los Angeles, that commitment will likely require another adjustment to his contract. Stafford’s play in 2024 does not warrant a pay increase.