Taking a looking at Cleveland Browns players on offense that are slated to be free agents this offseason. Who should the team re-sign and who would be better-suited with another team? Find out here.
Now that the dust has settled in the 2023-24 Cleveland Browns season, we turn our attention to the offseason. This offseason will be another pivotal one in determining the future success of the franchise, as the Browns begin the strategic phase of aiming to enhance the roster, address positional weaknesses, and continue to build upon the existing foundation. This will include exploring player additions via trades, the NFL Draft, and free agency, the latter of which will be our focus here.
The Browns have a slew of players currently slated to hit free agency, some of which are familiar household names. Our purpose here is to try and determine which free agents should be brought back for the 2024-25 season (“buy”) and which players would be better-suited with a different ball club (“sell”).
Expected points added (“EPA”) via Inside the Pylon: “Expected Points Added (EPA) is a football statistic that seeks to measure the value of individual plays in terms of points. This is done by calculating the Expected Points (EP) of the down, distance, and field position situation at the start of a play and contrasting it with the situation at the end of the play. A three-yard gain on first-and-10 is pretty different than a three-yard gain on third-and-two, something not usually captured in conventional statistics. The Expected Points framework helps translate raw gains into value.”
Completion percentage over expectation (“CPOE”): Calculates the probability of a pass being completed using various factors, e.g. field position, down, distance to the sticks, pass location, air yards, etc. That expected completion percentage is then subtracted from the actual completion percentage to arrive at CPOE.
Notes: Joe Flacco won over the hearts of many Browns fans during his stretch of games over the latter part of the season. His leadership, presence in the locker room, and performance on the field were key to the team’s appearance in the 2023-24 NFL playoffs. From Weeks 13 thru 17, the veteran led the position in yards (1,630) and touchdowns (13) and was tied for 6th in big time throws (10). However, the turnover bug did not work in his favor, as he also led all quarterbacks in the category with eight. In fact, his EPA per play ranking went from 25th to 16th if you exclude plays with turnovers. This is a tough call as I believe he can help a team win football games under the right circumstances, but I believe this will be a Jacoby Brissett type situation where the Browns elect to go with a more affordable option at backup (even though both parties have reportedly expressed mutual interest in a return).
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