Will we have another player like Ni……
4 offensive keys for Vikings vs. Broncos
ATLANTA, GEORGIA – NOVEMBER 05: Joshua Dobbs #15 of the Minnesota Vikings carries the ball against the Atlanta Falcons during the second quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on November 05, 2023 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
What was once labeled as a throwaway game a few weeks ago has suddenly become one of the more interesting matchups on the docket for week 11.
The Minnesota Vikings head on the road to battle the Denver Broncos in primetime Sunday at 7:20 p.m. CST.
Minnesota is on a whopping five-game winning streak since starting the season 1-4, becoming one of the better feel-good stories in the NFL.
Denver has gone on a three-game winning streak of their own, including wins against powerhouses like the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills.
During their win streak, their defense has been playing lights-out. The Broncos are sixth in EPA per play allowed and seventh in EPA per dropback allowed since week seven.
If the Vikings want to keep their winning streak going, they will need to follow these keys to success against this zoned-in Denver defense.
Despite their success against the pass during this stretch of three wins, Denver has not had that same success against the run.
In that stretch from weeks seven to ten (week nine bye), the Broncos are 23rd in rushing EPA allowed and tied for last in defensive rushing success rate.
Beating Denver starts on the ground, which may not be the best news for Minnesota.
In that same span, Minnesota is 29th in rushing EPA and 26th in rushing success rate.
This offense still moves the ball without the constant rushing attack because they are so good through the air, but if they want to take that next step, the rushing attack has to get going.
Alexander Mattison is still fighting to get back after being in the concussion protocol earlier this week. He probably won’t be back in time to play on Sunday.
Ty Chandler will probably take on the responsibility of being the featured back with Kene Nwangwu backing him up.
Chandler got his first touchdown of his career against the New Orleans Saints last week and should have had a second one if it weren’t for a Brian O’Neill holding call.
Going into week ten, the Broncos played cover-three 40% of the time, the league average is just above 35%.
This means that getting the ball out quickly to the flats and up the seams will be part of the formula to beat Denver’s defense.
How Hockenson won against the New Orleans Saints is the formula to success against the Broncos, as well. Hockenson had eight catches either in the flats or up the seams, including his touchdown grab.
Hockenson will likely be featured again, especially after his record-breaking first half from last week. But watch for Jordan Addison and Brandon Powell to get more involved as well.
They have to win on the outside to force Denver into more cover-three looks and open up Hockenson in the seams and flats.
One of the keys to success for Denver these past few weeks has been their ability to cause turnovers for the offense.
The Broncos are first in the NFL in percentage of opponent’s drives that end in a turnover (30%) during their winning streak.
Their ability to give their offense short fields has led to the offense having the best average starting field position in the NFL. Denver’s average starting position is on their own 38, almost ten yards more than the league average starting position of the 28.5-yard line during that stretch.
In the two games that Denver did not cause a turnover, their defense let up 35 points to the Washington Commanders and the infamous 70-point debacle against the Miami Dolphins.
Minnesota finally had their first matchup without a turnover against the Saints, which led to the third-most expected points added from the offense this season.
This is an offense that can win with Josh Dobbs at quarterback, this is a sustainable formula for making the playoffs this season.
But hanging on to the football needs to be the top priority for the offense. Minnesota can’t afford the happenings of the first three weeks of this season.
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